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Bofferbrauer2 said:

Considering how much the liberals shot up in the polls after Trudeau announced his resignation, to the point that they went from rock bottom to out polling the conservatives within a couple weeks, I think Carney will win this election.

Poilievre is simply too close to Trump for comfort for many Canadians, so the more Trump fucks up the worse his chances get.

I wouldn't count those chickens just yet. The situation feels very reminiscent of what happened when Trudeau's father stood down in 1984 with the party floundering in the polls. Trudeau Sr. was succeeded by John Turner, a guy who wasn't an MP at the time but had a reputation as a financial wizard and managed to revive the party's polling position, only to completely bomb when it came to the actual election, leading to the Liberals barely scraping in as the second-largest party.

Then again, I'm fairly certain that Ronald Reagan never threatened to annex Canada, so that might make all the difference this time.