Happy 150 Million to the Switch. I remember vividly thinking after the smartphone and Wii U era that the days of a console ever reaching 150 Million again were over. Always felt like the PS2 was just the perfect storm of events that led it to selling that much that could never be replicated again. The PS2 released at the perfect time where competition was weak, Xbox was first starting out and not competitive yet and most people didn't take the GameCube seriously as a platform to get 3rd party games, making PS2 the only legit option at the time. There wasn't smartphones to steal the casual gamers away from the PS2. PS2 also worked as a relatively cheap DVD player which also may helped it stand out to sell even more. The PS2 also benefitted from the disaster launch of the PS3 since the price was much cheaper and Sony supporting it more in it's later years to recoup the losses from the PS3. I felt like it was impossible for a console in this day and age with strong competition now to ever get close to the PS2's success, but the Switch has proven me wrong, and I'm happy to know that the console business is still thriving more than ever and that we haven't transitioned into smartphone gaming like many were expecting.
At its current pace, it should be able to outsell the DS by this summer, officially making it the bestselling Nintendo console of all time. Only a few months away.
In terms of outselling the PS2 I think it's gonna end really close, really could go either way and heavily depends on how much Nintendo is willing to support the Switch 1 even after the Switch 2. My minimum sales forecast right now tho is 157 Million, there is 0 chance the Switch ends below that number. So I think even in a worst case scenario Switch will end within 3 Million away from PS2. I think if it were to outsell the PS2 it won't be til a bit of a while, probably by the end of 2026 it would happen, so a little less than 2 years.