The_Liquid_Laser said:
I've posted something like this far more than 2 times. I predicted Switch would be the best selling system of all time in early 2018 (and there is a link to the thread in my signature). However, there are people who have come out every single year declaring that "this year would finally be the year that Switch sales fall off a cliff". Of course it never does fall off of a cliff. The cliff is never coming regardless of how much some people want it to come. Their reasons all sounded somewhat reasonable at the time, especially if the person really wanted them to be reasonable: "Switch has already fired all of it's big guns and now it has nothing left." All of these things were said by people who thought they were being reasonable at the time. But the biggest problem with this reasoning is that it's very clearly wrong. A person who was actually being reasonable would say to themselves, "Switch sure is selling a lot better than I thought, I wonder why that is?" And an unreasonable person would say, "that wasn't the year the Switch failed, but surely this is finally the year that it's over." The reality is that we have a lot of consoles in gaming history that were the most successful of their generation, and all of them sold somewhat after their successor released. The system that was the worst at this is the DS, and the system that was the best at this was the PS2 (and we'll exclude the GameBoy, because that was a very special case). A reasonable estimate for how Switch will sell after Switch 2 releases would be significantly better than the DS, but not as good as the PS2. Since you are predicting the Switch's tail end to be like the DS, you aren't being reasonable. You are either wishing the Switch will fail or you are just plain lazy. Currently you are falling into the category of people who have been predicting the Switch's inevitable fail and have been wrong for 8 years straight. You can do better. |
First of all I predicted that the Switch would end up somewhere between 140m-170m back in the first half of 2021 when most people were still expecting it to end up below the lower end of that range so lumping me in with the people saying it was gonna fall of a cliff years ago is really silly. You do realize that significantly better than the DS would still be eventually falling off a cliff and wouldn't be "gradual YoY drops" right? The 3DS held on significantly better than the DS did but still fell off a cliff in the end and I even mentioned it in that post but I see you completely ignored that and didn't explain how it's gonna hold on better than the 3DS.
There is a good argument that the Switch will hold on better than the DS did and I literally said to you just a few months ago that I expect that to happen so you're just wrong about me predicting the tail end to be like the DS, all I'm predicting is the tail end to be like a normal console so that entire last paragraph is complete nonsense. Since you decided to get personal with it though I'll mention that how you're acting with this is reminding me of how you acted in regards to the PS5 years ago since expecting the Switch to keep declining gradually YoY after the Switch 2 launches is just as ridiculous as your past PS5 predictions so I'm not the one who needs to do better here.
Last edited by Norion - on 19 January 2025
