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curl-6 said:

Switch vs PS4/5 was a fun one, with the underdog coming back from the brink of the abyss to challenge and ultimately surpass the market leader.

It was crazy to watch Switch and PS4. When Switch launched, my initial lifetime thoughts were 3DS numbers, maybe lower at NES numbers even. I saw SNES numbers or even lower as a possibility, but unlikely. Who can blame me after Nintendo's spotty history of home console sales and a handheld like 3DS that sold a little under half of DS despite having many of the same features and popular games like Pokemon and Mario. 

I wasn't on this site until about exactly 10 years ago, but with how much PS4 got right at launch compared to Xbox One, 100 million was a lock. And before PS5 launched, I saw 120-125 million as very possible. And I stand by to this day Sony could've sold 125 million units or a little more than that if they kept making more PS4s than they have since PS5 and if they had the PS4 Slim permanently cut down in price to $200-$250.

But as we've said many times on this site, these corporations aren't looking for a sheer number of units moved. Switch would've already passed DS by now globally if that was the case. Nintendo has the money in the bank to sell Switch Lite for $130-$170, Switch for $200-$250, and Switch OLED for $300 or under. And they would still be profitable in those cases. It's just they would be clearly less profitable, and Nintendo is clearly content with the sales of controllers and software as well, so they don't need to have Switch hit a lifetime total of 165 million units or higher. 

Switch has a shot of nearly matching PS2's totals or going slightly above. But Nintendo doesn't need to hit that milestone. They've already won in profitability compared to the PS2 by a significant and obvious margin. And if Switch 2 is a big hit (likely) they'll have another win over PS2 as PS2 was succeeded by PS3 which bled billions of dollars. 

I don't think any video game platform will ever crack 200 million units or more. The cost in labor and parts seems too intense for that to be worth it, especially since consoles aren't popular forever during their lifespan. And many times when the sales go down after a peak, they don't have go up again year on year. 3DS was an odd exception.


Find more statistics at Statista



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 40 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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