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killer7 on 12 November 2024
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
killer7 said:

170 million? I don't know. How can it get there? I am even willing to bet my head that it won't do numbers this high, but no lower than 155 million, expect the Switch 2 is an upgrade/ not a sucessor. I see 155 million as the floor for march 2027 and discontinuation no earlier than that date. IF Nintendo gets to around their FC (153 million/ 154 million) the PS2 is a lock. If not (152 m- 153) we will have to wait till march 2026 to find out if it has a chance in 2026/27. 

Fight-the-Streets said:

I want to believe but isn't this a bit too optimistic? If the forecasted 12.5 mil can be held until the end of this fiscal year we would be at 153.82 mil, right at your ballpark of 153-154 mil. You predict that shippments will be at 9-10 mil for FY 2026. This would be a decline of only 20-28% compared to FY 2025, in a year where the successor comes out. I don't think this is realistic, even with a price cut and a new SKU-model.

One reason the Switch won't sell terribly next FY is that Switch 2 is not releasing until sometime next FY.  For a portion of next FY, the Switch will still be Nintendo's main platform.

However, the even bigger reason that Switch will continue to sell decently well is that Nintendo does not like to put all of its eggs into one basket.  They are going to keep making First Party software for Switch at least until 2027.  They are also going to try to keep selling some amount of hardware until then as well.  Nintendo kept featuring 3DS software in its Directs even well into 2018.  Why did they do this?  Because they didn't want to put all of their eggs into one basket.  Two extra years of 3DS software was planned before the Switch even released.  Once they saw the Switch was successful, then they saw they didn't need to keep supporting the 3DS, but they still had 2 years worth of software in the pipeline, so it got support until 2018.

Switch is in a similar boat except that it is far more profitable than the 3DS is.  Nintendo does not want to kill it off.  Furthermore almost all of the hard work of making it successful has already been done.  So far, during this FY, they are about as profitable as 2019, even though 2019 had a fantastic software line up, and this year we've basically just had minor titles like a 2D Zelda.  Switch still produces a ton of profit with minimal effort to support it at this point.  They aren't eager to kill it off.  On the contrary, they are going to keep it going until 2027, at least, in case the Switch 2 is a flop.  (And if Switch 2 does flop, then they'll keep supporting Switch even further.)

Basically, Nintendo is still interested in keeping Switch a relevant platform for a few more years.  They need to hedge their bets, and Switch will continue to be very profitable for them with minimal effort.

Nintendo will produce the Switch at least till march 2027, but thats clear. Nobody with a clear mind doubts that. First party till 2027? march 2026 for sure, summer maybe, winter smaller titles, march 2027 a goodbyetitle... but who knows 3rds and indies will be on board in 2027 and beyond. A system thats not gonna sell below 9- 10 million in it's 8th year, isn't going anywhere in it's 9th where i see no less than 4 million. And after 4 million no system gets axed. 1 million for 2027 is a dead lock!! And thats the most pessimistic scenario. Of course there is one where the Switch finishes at ~154m this FY and gets to 158- 160 million till 2026. Another 2 million in 2026 would barly push it over 162 in march 2027, leaving no doubt about who is Nr.1, but we'll have to wait for this FY to finish before jumping into conclusions wich scenario is more likley...