2024 US Presidential Election

[EricHiggin]

haxxiy said:

SanAndreasX said:

Right now, I'm nervously watching the Arizona results. Gallego is still ahead, but that race is too close for comfort and going to be razor-thin, like many of Arizona's other elections. They're not expecting a final outcome anytime soon, either, because counting in Arizona is very slow. Maricopa County, the largest county, has a two-page ballot which is further slowing down things. And even if she loses, Kari Lake will still screech about election fraud until 2026 when she will no doubt try again to go after the governorship.

The remaining vote is similar in composition to what's already in (according to the NYT needle before it went offline) so Gallego is very likely winning.

Also, I don't think Harris has a shot at the popular vote anymore. California swung too hard like everyone else. Even if the outstanding mail is like 65-35 the popular vote will probably end up around 77m - 75m in his favor.

This would make my prediction super close. I didn't post it knowing exactly how it would be received and not wanting to get swarmed.

I figured Americans would take Trumps main campaign question to heart of, 'do you prefer the last 4 years under Biden or the 4 prior under me'?

Which meant a 2016 EC, yet with Trump having such a good shot at the POP, I figured you'd get Hillary's margin give or take but with Trump on top.