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JWeinCom 2 days ago
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sundin13 said:
JWeinCom said:

If there has been an 11 point swing in Iowa, PA is a lock. Ohio is in play. Texas and Florida may be as well. If this is right we are looking at an electoral blowout between 350 and 400. This would end the Maga movement. 

Every poll should be taken with a grain of salt. But I don't think it is an impossibility.

Even if Iowa has swung towards Dems, if the reason is truly the abortion ban, it may not be quite as predictive of other states as a more generalized swing. Obviously it's impossible to know, but I wouldn't put too much stock into what that means for the Rust Belt as a whole.

I am somewhat doubtful that the 11 point swing was caused by solely by the abortion ban specifically. I imagine part of it is related to general trends on abortion. And some of it would likely have to do with Trump himself. It is rather hard to imagine that giant swing would happen and PA would move over a point to the right. So I think it's fair to say that PA would be a lock in any event, in this scenario. 

But it is possible that the result is in some part due to the ban specifically. Which is why I would say Ohio would be in play.

But suppose you're right and it was just the abortion ban. In that case, you have to start thinking about Texas, where there is a highly restrictive ban, Florida where there is a ballot initiative, and AZ where there is a ballot initiative. All of those states were much closer in 2020. Particularly in FL and AZ where the ban is actually on the ballot, you'd expect a large shift.

So, take your pick. It's all just abortion ban specific, and AZ, TX, and FL are in play. Or, it's more generalized and that bodes well for PA and OH.