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Norion on 25 October 2024
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Esparadrapo said:
Norion said:

I was responding to the scenario he presented but that's not the rational thing to do since it's not taking into account that 2025 is looking to be the biggest year for gaming this decade so it'd be very surprising if it only sells 3.25 million next year unless there's a bunch of delays and it turns out to not be that strong of a year. If a very US centric game College Football 25 causes a notable boost the month it comes out then GTA 6 is gonna cause a much bigger one than that and there's all the other games coming out next year including potentially the first COD game this generation to not be cross-gen.

Starfield was supposed to be the game of the generation for Xbox and hardware sales fell anyway.

You keep bringing up College Football constantly and that thing only managed to keep the Xbox USA sales afloat 1 month with something like 100k units over the same month last year. August and September have been complete disasters. College Football had zero legs. Nil. Nada. Like happened with Starfield, the correction next year will be massive, around 70% or more to stay in line with the ~35% loss on average these past two years.

And GTA 6 or the current gen exclusive CoD is still too far fetched. There's zero guarantee that GTA 6 will launch next year and the impact from CoD will depend on how the current one does on Game Pass.

Yeah I keep bringing it up cause it's a good recent example of a current gen only game boosting hardware sales. The legs part is irrelevant to my point since as I said GTA 6 will obviously cause a much bigger boost than that game so even if it's mostly contained to just one month it'll still make a significant difference for that year and it getting delayed or not doesn't change the broader point about the long term prospects of the console since that'll just shift the boost forward by a few months or so if it does get delayed.

I'm not sure what your point with the Game Pass part is since I was referring to some players still on gen 8 consoles finally upgrading if the 2025 one isn't released on those.