Chrkeller said:
Bad data like Trump being under polled in 2016 and 2020? Just because you don't like that data doesn't mean it is bad data. The data has it being tight, with an edge to Trump. You shouldn't backhand jab the messenger. And yes, professional betting firms aren't in the business of losing money and I'm certain they understand data better than the random folks in this thread. |
That’s because it IS bad data. These same GOP-flooded pollsters also had the GOP retaking control of the Senate per their skewed polling averages in 2022, it didn’t happen. They also said they’d gain 70 seats in the House, later down to 30, turns out they only gained 10.
So yes, people are right to dismiss it. Just like Kamala’s 2 point lead in NC suddenly disappeared when Quantus Insights released their poll, which they took credit for in a tweet. Don’t take MY word for it, though. When 1 or 2 nonpartisan polls are being released in each swing state in the last week and 7 by the same firm, you know something’s up:
We are in something of a high-quality polling drought in the swing states.
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) October 21, 2024
Since last Monday (out of field date of 10/14) we’ve only had 1 or 2 non-partisan aligned high-quality (2.0+/3.0⭐️ rating per FiveThirtyEight) polls in each state.
7 out of those 12 were from AtlasIntel. pic.twitter.com/cJCXJk5DjR
Doesn’t align with this, though:
Rallies in the past 24 hours pic.twitter.com/r5MmgyZqib
— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) October 25, 2024
You know what else isn’t being reflected in these GOP-flooded polls? Early voting, which shows Kamala with a massive lead in PA which Trump needs.
Pennsylvania Early Votes
— Anonymous Pennsylvania Voter🇺🇸🥥🌴 (@PA_Voter_34) October 21, 2024
🔵Dems: 580,073
🔴GOP: 254,424
🟡NPA: 87,233
🔵Democratic Firewall: +325,649
Democrats are at 65.1% of reaching their firewall goal of +500,000 votes. They were at 58.9% on Friday
Or the early-voting in GA, NC and AZ, which also favors Kamala:
Marist polling of early voters:
— Blank Slate (@blankslate2017) October 24, 2024
AZ: Harris 55 Trump 44
NC: Harris 55 Trump 43
GA: Harris 54 Trump 45.
It strikes me as a little surprising given the composition of the EV thus far in those states. Suggests that EV Indies are voting Dem.
Of course, we all know why they’re doing this: so Trump can once again (fraudulently as every single court, some with his own appointed judges ruled in 2020-2021) claim the election was “stolen” if/when he loses, not that he was ever gonna accept the results in a loss (just like in 2020). It’s his get-out-of-jail-free card, after all.
Last edited by KManX89 - 4 days ago