2024 US Presidential Election

[zorg1000]

sundin13 said:

zorg1000 said:

TallSilhouette said:

Yeah, that's what I was saying; it seems like every other indicator BUT polling favors Harris so it's weird that the polls are still a dead heat. Maybe they are accurate, but if so it's a strange sort of contradiction.

The thing is that Trump has never hit 47% and some things that have happened since the last election are January 6 and Roe being over turned so it’s really hard to imagine him somehow doing better in 2024. On top of that, his campaign has mostly just been doubling down on the things he ran on in 16/20 so it’s not like he’s doing anything to reach out to undecided voters.

At this point, I don’t think undecided voters are trying to decide between Trump & Harris, they are trying to decide whether Harris is good enough or if they should just stay at home.

A while back I said it was going to be 52-46 in Harris’ favor and I still believe that, 51-47 worst case scenario.

I think the counterargument would be that 2020 was a referendum on Trump while Conservatives are trying to make 2024 a referendum on Biden. Inflation may very well be a stronger motivator than 1/6 ever was. As bad as 1/6 was, people just naturally care more about what affects them every day than something that feels less personal (which also happened four years ago). The big question over this election is if moderately attached voters are going to be motivated by dislike of Trump's personality or Biden's economy. 

Yes, but we also saw in 2022 (when inflation was at its peak, we were going through a surge of border crossings and theft was on the rise) that Republicans severely underperformed in the midterms. The party in power usually performs poorly so economy+immigration+crime should have been a winning formula that led to a massive red wave but instead they ran crazy, Trump backed candidates like Masters, Walker & Oz and backlash from Roe being overturned led to Democrats gaining a Senate seat and barely losing the House.

Inflation is down, border crossings are down, crime is down, Trump is crazier than ever, abortion is still a huge factor and we have a new candidate that people are excited about so I don’t see how running on the same issues that Lee to them underperforming in 2022 will somehow work in 2024.