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BraLoD said:

Because 10M is what the biggest Sony games reach, meanwhile Sony has not been very into plaformers since the PS1 days.

I loved Astro and I wish it the best, but I would be surprised to see it selling like stuff like Ghost of Tsushima or Horizon Forbidden West.

Sony biggest actually reach 20m on PS4 (GOW/Uncharted/Horizon Zero Dawn/Spiderman/TLOU etc)

10m would be an incredible achievement and shouldn't be expected but I think its very much within the realms of possibility. 5-6m is honestly the floor (again using Ratchet as reference), so 7-8m imo is a realistic target.

For now we can only predict but I think I think the critical reception/ word of mouth actually translating into post launch week sales is what is telling. Games like Horizon did not excel in this area without bundles or price cuts, whereas Astro is reclaiming no.1 in UK/France/Switzerland in its 3rd week ahead of multiplatform titles and without much marketing push and no bundles. That's a very good indicator of an evergreen. In Japan its sales trajectory doesn't resemble any past 1st party title. This week in Japan its flat week on week and is the best selling title outside of the new releases.  

But we'll have to wait and see if this momentum continues into the holiday.