the-pi-guy said:
There's going to be some overlap. It's not like 100% of the uncontested are not going to vote in November. Some of them are going to vote, some of them aren't. We can't exactly look at the 100k and make a good estimate on how many won't vote in November. There are also going to be some people that voted for him and changed their mind afterwards, and there's going to be some people who didn't vote whatsoever who strongly feel that way. There's not enough information to be definitive, that's really all I'm saying. Biden also won by ~154k votes, if Harris only loses 100k votes, Michigan is still fine. The election also doesn't particularly hinge on Michigan. Biden could have lost all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota and still would have been president in 2020. |
Harris needs the whole Midwest to win. GA, AZ, NC seem like they will be going to Trump. And I wouldn’t bet on a razor thin margin of ~54k in Michigan, especially when (a.) Biden was polling 4pts better in 2020 than Harris this election and (b.) you now have the Lebanese-Americans joining the movement. (And again, I have no further interest in arguing projections regarding the uncontested.)