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rapsuperstar31 on 04 September 2024
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haxxiy said:
JWeinCom said:

The 2020 polls were actually pretty decent. They were close in most states. The only ones that were more than like a percent off were Wisconsin, Florida, and I think Texas actually. So, I don't really know what to make of them.

You mentioned Trafalgar and oddly enough their polls make me the most hopeful. They show almost a dead even race in most of the swing states, which if history is correct, would indicate that Harris would win all of them. 

The average was Biden +8 in Michigan and Wisconsin, +5 in Pennsylvania, and +1 in Florida. WI and MI were the worst ones. PA for some reason polled consistently to the right of the midwestern swing states (both in 2020 and now) despite being bluer than WI.

Of course, it's hard to say how much the pandemic influenced turnout. It's possible that it handicapped Biden to an extent on election day despite the already huge turnout (case in point: cities swinging right in 2020 vs. 2016). So all the poll correcting now might not be quite precise.

I've  seen people on reddit mention that most major poling changed the way they approach things in 2022 and Democrats beat out polls in most cases.  Polling had Shapiro winning the PA governor 52% to 41.6% and he won it by 56.5% to 41.7%  I find it hard to belie PA would elect a democrat governor over a maga candidate in 2022 by 792,660 votes is gong to go with Trump in 2024.  Poling had democrat Whitmer at a +4.8 to win governor in Michigan in 2022 and she won by +10.9 or 469,674.  Polling had democrat Tony Evers losing in the polls 48.7% to 48.4% and Evers won it 51.2% to 47.78% by 90,701 votes.