Just to follow up on the "RFK Dropping Out" conversation, Silver Bullet (by Nate Silver, formerly of 538) has updated his models. In his national model, Harris gained 0.8pts and Trump gained 1.1pts, for an overall change of 0.3pts in favor of Trump. That is a very small change. Harris recently had some great polling leading to her biggest single day improvement and this doesn't even reset things to before that polling.
The model in swing states shows roughly the same polling change, so overall, this does hurt Harris, but she currently has a lot of paths to victory and this doesn't change that. For example, Harris recently took the polling lead in North Carolina (though it is still well within the margin of error). This means that, say, North Carolina + Nevada could make up for losing PA.
Polls in general will be in an interesting spot for a bit as they pivot to removing RFK from their 5-way matchups (now 4-way I guess). It'll also be interesting to see if another candidate like Stein can cement themselves as the third place finisher.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Existing User Log In
New User Registration
Register for a free account to gain full access to the VGChartz Network and join our thriving community.
