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RolStoppable said:

2.1m for FQ1 which is a solid start for a year that I had expected to finish at 11m. Nintendo, however, aims for 13.5m which is only 2.2m less than the year before. Through the first quarter the deficit is 1.81m, so from here on out Switch has to be almost flat for the remainder of the year. Because last year had TotK, it was expected that the deficit would be big for this quarter, so nothing has really changed regarding what has been talked about during the past few months in this thread.

It's not just TotK that released, but also the Super Mario Bros Movie, which additionally pushed both the console and Mario titles. This double punch however resulted in very muted holiday sales as everybody already their fix in spring, so it's quite possible Nintendo is banking on the possibility that holiday sales will make up for the other losses throughout the year.