| Pinkie_pie said: I'm also looking at how much it's sold already and how much more it's gonna sell in 2025 with GTA6. Currently it's around 30m and you telling me it's not gonna sell at least another 10m for another 3 years even with GTA6 ? |
MS has been reporting significant decreases in hardware yearly. 2022 was the peak year for Xbox Series hardware. Compared to last year, Xbox hardware fell 42%. At the same point last year, Xbox hardware was down 13% from 2022. Now these are quarterly results, but I dont think there has been any hardware growth reported in any of their quarters since 2022. Which even at the tail end of 2022 Xbox hardware revenue was dropping around 13% as reported on their Q2 report for that year (which covers Sept - Dec). Also, I believe last quarter they reported a 32% drop YoY too.
Even the Switch, which is in its 8th year on the market, is not experiencing decreases in hardware sales that significant and its selling more than the Xbox currently is yearly.
In 2022 their peak for Xbox sales was about 8.7M. Last year that dropped by about 15% to 7.4M. This year its dropping by 30% or more, which means its going to be around 5.2M or even less. Lets say it ends this year at 32M. Well, with consistent hardware decreases its unlikely to start spiking up at this point. The BEST they could probably do is remain somewhat consistent. But with reports of a new Xbox in 2026, its doubtful it will stay steady. So 32M by the end of this year, 36-37M at BEST by the end of 2025. Then 2026 a new console launch? Idk about you, but I can see how many people doubt it will hit that 40M mark. Even best case scenarios dont paint a pretty picture. Yes, GTA 6 could give it a boost...but that would be banking on the Series S more than anything. Since most others who want GTA 6 and dont have a current gen console will probably buy a Playstation for it, based on the numbers. Except for those who maybe cant quite afford one (hence the Series S).
Note: One flaw with these calculations is that hardware revenue can also decrease for other reasons (sales, more Series S purchases), but what VGChartz is extrapolating with console sales seems to match a lot of the revenue that MS is reporting as far as I can tell.
