Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

[trunkswd]

Panicradio said:

@trunkswd
@Geralt99

Some weeks ago, I've started doing some own calculations based on Microsoft's financial reports and YOY changes.

My first 'vanilla' numbers I received indicate the Xbox Series sell-through estimates could still be overtracked by 2.27m units.

My shipment numbers indicate 29.4m units shipped as of 31st December, 2023.

Of course, there's sadly just no way to confirm or deny due to the lack of official shipment or sell-through numbers data.

I guess my question to both you number wizards is:

Would you rather tend to agree or disagree on an overtracking of the Series data as of today and the numbers you know?

Your 29.4M shipment estimate at the end of 2023 would end up being ~31M at the end of June 2024. Once the Americas data comes in we will have Xbox Series X|S sell-through estimates at ~29M, for a difference of ~2M between shipped and sold. A gap of 1M-3M between shipped and sold is pretty typical. Generally the better a console is selling the bigger the gap is (unless there are shortages) as they need to get more stock out there to keep up with demand and it takes many weeks to ship consoles around the world.

For example, Sony has PS5 sell-through at 56M at the end of FY23, which ended March 31, 2024 (likely rounded, so could be 55.50M-56.49M), compared to "more than 59.2 million" shipped. That is a gap of 2.7M-3.7M.

PS5 sell-through on Page 14 - https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/business_segment_meeting/pdf/2024/GNS_E.pdf

PS5 shipment - https://sonyinteractive.com/en/our-company/business-data-sales/

Without more data it is impossible to know if we've overtracked/undertracked the Xbox Series X|S. We get enough data to be relatively close in the Americas, Europe, and Japan. But we get limited data for RoW that requires us to extrapolate a lot of the estimates for our RoW countries/regions. That is mainly mainland Asia, Middle East, and Africa.

I would LOVE for Microsoft to give us quarterly shipment figures, but they don't. If they ever gave us hard data we would adjust our estimates to be as accurate as possible. The most data we got was from an ID@Xbox presentation in June 2023 that had the Xbox Series X|S at 21M+, and Xbox Series X|S and Xbox One combined at 79M+. That put Xbox One at ~58M lifetime. What we don't know is the exact date for the data and if that is shipped or sold. It is possible the data is from the end of the previous quarter (March 2023) or possibly it was the latest data from sometime in June 2023.