| Shadow1980 said: Shipped ≠ sold, and I think we all know that. Obviously even if the Switch didn't have any more units shipped to Japan, unit sales will still eventually exceed those of the DS since there's enough supply left for it to do so. Doesn't change the fact that the Switch hasn't passed the DS in sales. Let's not split hairs on this, okay? In any case, do you really expect the Paper Mario 2 and Luigi's Mansion 2 remakes to move a ton of hardware when their original versions and other entries in their respective series didn't? I know there's a lot of people here that have a very loose definition of "system-seller." I mean, I suppose even some obscure niche title that only sold 100k copies could've been the one to get a few random people to buy a system. But not every semi-noteworthy title actually causes noticeable upticks in hardware sales (there's been at least a couple of occasions where I was told some game would be a major system-seller only for it to come and go with no bumps to hardware sales). The fact of the matter is that it's only a handful of big games that have any major impact on hardware, and the effect of any single title is always relatively short-lived (usu. a month or two at most, many only a single week). Also, Nintendo releasing several smaller titles in a system's last year isn't anything new. Obviously they're not going to leave these last 12 months before the Switch 2 releases (assuming a March 2025 release date) fully bereft of first-party software for the Switch, but what the Switch is getting won't prevent or even slow down continued declines in sales. By far the biggest thing the Switch still has left, the only thing that can move the needle on hardware, is the upcoming Pokemon Legends game, but that's not due out until next year. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a cross-gen title, and even if it's not, the Switch 2 will almost certainly be backwards compatible (which could diminish the game's impact on Switch 1 hardware), and most people that bought a Switch to play Pokemon have one already (these late-life Pokemon games always have greatly diminished impacts compared to earlier titles on a given system). We might see a solid but not massive bump lasting a couple of weeks, but that's it, and that bump will be to sales noticeably lower than current sales. That one game by itself won't be the thing that pushes the Switch ahead of the DS. As for the U.S. vs. the rest of the "Americas" region, keep in mind that the U.S. has consistently been at least 85-90% of Nintendo hardware sales in the region since Nintendo has been releasing systems. Canada represents most of the rest, and Switch sales in Canada have consistently been about one-tenth of U.S. sales. The Switch will probably at best sell 3.5M this year in the U.S., putting it at a bit over 48M lifetime, still over 5M short of the DS's lifetime total. If it only sells 3.5M this year, then I would argue it has zero chance of selling another 5M+ after it's replaced. Unless Latin America & the Caribbean can somehow match or exceed U.S.+Canada sales from here on out, then it's going to be hard for regional sales to match or exceed those of the DS. Even if it does beat the DS for the whole region, it won't be by much, and not enough to make up for the massive deficit in Europe, even if you combine the Americas with the Switch's lead in Japan. As I said, the Switch's ability to beat the DS worldwide is going to depend entirely on markets outside the Americas, Europe, and Japan making up for the net deficit from the main three markets. This is the last full calendar year the Switch has before being replaced. A large majority of the rest of its lifetime sales will come in the next 12 months assuming a March 2025 release date for the Switch 2, so whatever milestones it can still pass will depend on how well it does this year. Given Nintendo's track record over the past 25 years, I am not convinced they will give the Switch the support it needs for it to not fall off of a cliff once the Switch 2 is released. If the Switch does manage to beat the DS worldwide, it probably won't be by much, and not until well after the Switch 2 releases. |
No, I don't expect Paper Mario and Luigi's Mansion to move a ton of hardware, because that's not how it works to begin with. The two of us have had discussions about Switch's sales momentum a few times in the last several years, and every time I've pointed out Switch's overall more than solid release schedule from first and third parties which will prevent sales from having a massive decline. In 2019 you doubted that Switch could pass 100m, later you doubted that Switch could pass the PS4, then 140m would have been too much of an ask in your mind. You know my argument already, so my response to the first half of your post can be condensed to me saying that the same logic will continue to hold true.
Switch is on pace to exceed Nintendo's projected 141.1m LTD mark by March 2024 and they'll likely forecast a figure of ~11m units for the fiscal year ending March 2025, because Switch's successor will hardly have an impact in the upcoming fiscal year. That's a decline of ~30% after FY23 declined by only ~15%. That will put Switch's LTD by March 2025 at 152m; the DS's lifetime figure stands at 154.02m. An additional mere 2m after an 11m year aren't a challenge, so I don't need to go into detail for each region. Try to run a shipment forecast for yourself and you should realize how hard it is to keep Switch below the DS in lifetime sales.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
