Nintendo Switch selling life time? (poll)

[Shtinamin_]

Fight-the-Streets said:

javi741 said:

I've shifted my prediction from 152M earlier in 2024 to now 156M after Nintendo had a better than expected holiday quarter and rumors pointing towards a 2025 release of Switch 2 instead of 2024, giving Switch one more critical holiday season to sell. So now I'm expecting the Switch to surpass the DS and be within striking distance of the PS2 158-159M.

At this point the absolute minimum Switch will sell lifetime is 150M, even if Switch falls off a cliff hard from here on out I find it impossible it falls short of 150M.

Why so "pessimistic/doubtful"?The minimum of 150M actually applies for end of 2024, not for lifetime. By end of March 2024 (= FY24) the Switch will be at 142M shipped (or very close to it). The Switch coming of a FY shipping more than 16M (yes, mostly likely the forecasted 15.5mil for FY24 will be surpassed) and having another holidays all for itself, it is very unlikely that it will ship less than 10M in FY25. Therefore, by end of March 2025, the Switch will be at a minimum of 152M (or very close to it). From then on out and whenever the Switch 2 will come out in 2025 (March, April, May,...), I mean, the Switch will not just stop completely to sell. Even if Nintendo "kills off" the Switch (which is very unlikely but howsoever...), an absolute bare minimum of two full years of production after Switch 2 comes out is guaranteed.

As of Feb 29th the Switch is estimated at 141M shipped (personal estimate), and is at -13% from FY'23 (18.63M from FY'23, and ~16.3M from this FY) in terms of shipping.

Jan and Feb are always the lowest selling & shipping months of the FY so seeing a -9.7% YoY in Jan & -15% YoY in Feb is really solid. We should expect to see a minimum of a 15%-20% decrease in the FY'25 goal. Personally I expect around 13M for the FY'25 goal. 10M is very reasonable. I'm sticking with 13M. Bringing the Switch to a total of 155M by Mar 31 2025.