| javi741 said: I've shifted my prediction from 152M earlier in 2024 to now 156M after Nintendo had a better than expected holiday quarter and rumors pointing towards a 2025 release of Switch 2 instead of 2024, giving Switch one more critical holiday season to sell. So now I'm expecting the Switch to surpass the DS and be within striking distance of the PS2 158-159M. |
Why so "pessimistic/doubtful"?
The minimum of 150M actually applies for end of 2024, not for lifetime. By end of March 2024 (= FY24) the Switch will be at 142M shipped (or very close to it). The Switch coming of a FY shipping more than 16M (yes, mostly likely the forecasted 15.5mil for FY24 will be surpassed) and having another holidays all for itself, it is very unlikely that it will ship less than 10M in FY25. Therefore, by end of March 2025, the Switch will be at a minimum of 152M (or very close to it). From then on out and whenever the Switch 2 will come out in 2025 (March, April, May,...), I mean, the Switch will not just stop completely to sell. Even if Nintendo "kills off" the Switch (which is very unlikely but howsoever...), an absolute bare minimum of two full years of production after Switch 2 comes out is guaranteed.
