If Nin isn't more open and friendly with 3rd parties:
Wii 2U - 22M
XB1 - 50M
PS4 - 117M
Assuming Nin also ends up more open and friendly with 3rd parties with this more old school hardware approach:
XB1 - 32M
Wii 2U - 40M
PS4 - 117M
MS and XB screwed up really bad. Really really bad. Nin could have taken huge advantage of this just like PS4 did, but it would require far better 3rd party support.
I think we still end up getting Switch after this regardless, because I think Nin would be wise enough to realize this only worked decently because of how badly MS screwed up with XB1, and that when they right their wrongs like SNY did from PS3 to PS4, XB will likely come back stronger again, so can't rely on another outcome like this.
The question would be does Switch end up similar and as good as it was without what Nin learned from the Wii U failure in our timeline? It very well might have not, in which case Switch launches around 2020, but isn't quite the hit it ended up becoming. Maybe Switch only has 50-75M unit sales at this point in time because of it, which wouldn't be that bad, but certainly wouldn't be the massive success that Switch has become.
If Nin didn't realize why Wii 2U sold decently, and then tries something more like the Wii U as we knew it, Nin bombs gen 9, only to launch Switch early, prior to 10th gen, using outdated mobile hardware just like Switch did, just not as weak overall since it's basically 10th gen at this point.
