When it comes to the total sales in the Americas, which combines South American & North American sales. I believe the Switch will outsell both the PS2 & DS eventually.
The Switch in the Americas is currently at 53.58 Million while the DS sold 59.93 Million in the Americas. So the gap currently is quite a bit smaller for the Americas compared to the U.S only sales, as it seems like the Switch is doing better than the DS in the Latin American regions. The gap is only 6 Million between the two, this fiscal year the Switch is expected to sell around 5.8 Million in the Americas which will put the Switch at around 54.8 Million Units by March 2024. If we were to forecast a 35% drop for the next fiscal year, which is a decline that seems reasonable by most people here, the Switch would sell around 3.8 Million for fiscal year ending 2025 putting the Switch at 58.57 Million by March 2025, only around 1.4 Million away from DS's sales in the Americas, even if the Switch drops off hard after March 2025 it should still be able to crawl past the DS in sales to become the bestselling console in history for the Americas. I'm expecting the Switch sales to end at around 61-62 Million units in the Americas when all said and done, making it #1 all time.
When it comes to North American sales only however, it does become a bit more tricky for the Switch to surpass the DS mainly because the Switch hasn't been keeping pace with the DS in U.S-only sales and it's becoming difficult to see the Switch being able to surpass the DS in the U.S this late in the game. The Switch is at around 44.5 Million in the U.S as of December 2023 while the DS sits at 53.53 Million, still a 9 Million gap left between Switch & DS in the U.S. The Switch sold around 5 Million Units in the U.S in 2023 and assuming we're predicting a reasonable 35% drop in 2024 the Switch would sell around 3.25M in 2024, putting the Switch at around 47.75 Million by the end of 2024, still nearly 6M away from the DS. Since I'm expecting no price cuts for Switch and Switch 2 BC I find it very difficult to see Switch from there on out to see another 6 Million the rest of its life to surpass the DS in the U.S since sales will drop off a cliff once Switch 2 releases. I'm expecting the Switch to sell around 50-51 Million units in the U.S when all said and done.
With the chnaces looking less likely for the Switch to outsell the DS in the U.S, it's gonna need Canada, Mexico, and other Latin American countries to carry the NA sales a bit more to have a chance to outsell the DS in NA, which I think it's certainly possible. Based on recent NPD sales estimates along with Vgchartz estimate, it seems like the Switch has recently just narrowly outsold the DS in the non-U.S portions of NA, with the Switch approximately at 4.5 Million in sales while the DS sold around 4.4 Million outside the U.S in NA. Nintendo also recently stated that a higher proportion of their American sales are coming from non-U.S countries and specifically mentioned that Switch sales in Mexico are up YOY thanks in part to the Mario Movie and related marketing getting the other less marketable countries more interested in the Switch.
Assuming the Switch sells around 50 Million units in the U.S and we use the 90% U.S Sales to 10% Other NA Countries sales proportion that's been a standard for most of the Switch's life. The Switch would sell around 55 Million in NA, just short of the DS's 57.9M but considering the proportion of sales as of late been leaning towards Mexico and other Latin American countries, it likely will be a bit closer than that. Right now i'll give a guess that the Switch will fall just short of the DS in NA selling around 56M, but it could go either way.
It should be able to comfortably outsell the PS2 in NA & the U.S however, it could happen as early as the end of 2024 but it should outsell it by Q1 of 2025 at the very least. Which will make the Switch the bestselling home console in North America's history.
Last edited by javi741 - on 29 February 2024
