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Norion on 24 February 2024
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Shtinamin_ said:
Norion said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I understand that. You most likely know that situation Nintendo was in during the WiiU era. They had little-to-no 3rd party backing, and every game that was released was selling around 5M units. The best selling is Mario Kart 8 at 8.46M. Nintendo already had the specs and prototype for the Switch set up and knew they needed to get it out fast, and early (They knew that they wouldn't be able to "survive" another 3 years, hence why the Switch launch "mid-cycle"). They didn't have enough Switch stock in the first couple of months, and that is probably the decent point that can be addressed. They had made the Nvidia chip deal back in Jul 27, 2016. Personally, I dont know how long it takes to manufacture a Switch or a couple million so I can make assumptions (Nintendo thinks they can ship 1.76 million units from Jan 1 to Mar 31). Now Nintendo Switch is in the latter years so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they can manufacture about 2-3x that amount in 3 mounts. So if they were to launch it in Nov 2016, they would have ~3 months to manufacture, ship, and ensure quality, and quantity of their games (Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild). I can assume they would have ~5M units for the holidays available for launch. 

The other point that is the more likely reason, for Mar launch, were the games. Was Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild ready to be released in Nov 2016? My only assumption is no, because they went for a Mar release when a significant portion of consoles from Nintendo has released near the holiday season in the past (there have been many Spring releases, and Summer releases as well).

If their circumstances were more in favor of Nintendo having a Nov 2016 release, I think Nintendo could have been able to sell more, around 6M more units. But if it would've launched in Nov 2016, would they Switch have caught on so fast, and be as beloved as it is, the pandemic boosted it so much, would it have not been relevant in 2020? idk. It is something to consider, what circumstances are you considering?

If BOTW wasn't ready by late 2016 then waiting till March for the Switch was the right move in the end since it let them have a fantastic first year which after the failure of the Wii U and disappointing performance of the 3DS in part due it having a rough start they needed to make absolutely certain the Switch had a really strong start.

I personally think that a better launch window is one that isn't near the holiday window. That way you get the die hard fans when it first releases, and by the time the upcoming holiday season arrives, parents can get their children something fun without having to worry about limited stock.

Nintendo knows what they are doing, and sounds like the lack of huge Nintendo AAA games for the 1st half of 2024 is a solid sign that they are working hard on games for the successor. And most likely, the more "important" release will be ready by Spring 2025.

When talking about people instead of business then it'll be better for some sure though I'd say overall it'd be better for people if it released November instead of March since then people will be able to use it a few months sooner and even if they can't get it this year they still have a chance of getting one sooner than Spring during January or February.

They seem to know what they're doing currently yeah though considering their previous two systems I'll need to see how they handle the Switch 2 first to be fully confident this Nintendo is smarter than the Nintendo from a decade ago.