Can The Switch become the best selling video game console in North America?

[Shtinamin_]

Shadow1980 said:

Unless Canada and Latin America make up for the U.S. and then some, then probably not. The deficit against the DS is just too great. Let's say the Switch sells 3.25M this year in the U.S. It will be sitting at about 47.5M (there is a slight margin of error). Meanwhile, the DS sold 53.5M units lifetime in the U.S. That means the Switch will need to sell at least another 6M or so from 2025 onward just to tie the DS. Absolutely no chance of that. Once the Switch 2 releases, the Switch is going to drop like a rock, as is normal for a Nintendo system once its official replacement is released. It'll probably end somewhere around 49M at the end of its life, maybe 50M tops.

The U.S. alone has generally been between 86% and 90% of Nintendo sales for the region (usually towards the mid to low part of that range), so if the Switch does hit 50M in the U.S., its total for the region could get to somewhere in the 55.5M and 58.2, still short of the 59.93M for the DS. So, it could probably come close, but it's highly unlikely to. That U.S. deficit is just too big. Not saying it's impossible, but it is a long shot. Perhaps the only way it does is if Nintendo doesn't drop it like a sack of potatoes after this year like they normally do when they release a system's official-official successor, and even then it will be an incredibly narrow victory.

It should still pass the PS2 some time in Q4 of this year, though, which would make it the new #2 system ever in the U.S., which is one hell of an accomplishment.

I feel like Mexico can be a big boost for North America. Looking how Mexico did with the Mario Movie, it seems like a reasonable idea that more units can be sold in Mexico compared to Canada. 
Though I do believe that the Switch does need a cut in price in Mexico and the Latin countries. But the Mexican market seems untapped and has great potential.