Norion on 20 February 2024
If it is delayed to early 2025 then overtaking the PS2 would become likely. A 3-4 month delay to presumably get software ready wouldn't be that big a deal but would still be a blunder from Nintendo cause holiday 2024 is the perfect time to make that quarter be big instead of weak so ideally launch software would be ready by then. Also from a personal perspective I want to see the new hardware as soon as possible by this point but at least it's only at most a year away.
