It could be, but the decline slope will depend on other factors that we can only guess at right now: price drops, new economy models, new bundles, and potential shared libraries with Switch 2–meaning a cheap Switch 1 could be an effective starter machine for those who want to sample a couple of years before diving into the ecosystem with a full priced Switch 2. I think 30% is a decent estimate all things considering. But it remains to be seen what Nintendo does over the next few months.
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.