It's a given that Switch will surpass the PS2 at this point. It's going to sell 15.5 million this fiscal year, and the Switch is still going strong with multiple games on the horizon and likely several more (at least) yet unannounced.
Here's why I think it's a given.
Many will say the Wii was notoriously front loaded in sales. And most would agree that the Wii was pretty much over after the release of Skyward Sword - which was Nintendo's last in-house game release on the console (they published a few third party games in 2012, which included Mario Party 9, but none were developed by Nintendo). Nintendo has three in house games announced, so far, for 2024 among others. No price drop has yet occurred on the Switch. No services have been cut from the Switch. Support looks like it's going to continue.
Yet after Skyward Sword's release and the effective death of the Wii, the Wii still sold over 12 million more units (5 million of those after the Wii U launched).
Personally, I'd say Switch can do at least double Wii's post-Skyward Sword sales; so, over 24 million more sales for a total of about 165m+ lifetime. But it only needs to do another 18 million to beat the PS2, another 14 million to beat the DS.
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
