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Tbh I think Nintendo will announce the existence of new hardware coming in the Spring of 2024, maybe a Codename or just an announcement that they're working on new hardware, they might possibly do it during their fiscal year earnings report at around April/May so Nintendo could still keep pushing Switch hardware til the very last minute to reach their sales forecast just before the fiscal year ends. I believe a full reveal will happen at around the Fall before a March 2025 release. I'm still skeptical that Switch 2 will release in Q4 2024 since it'll be very uncharacteristic for Nintendo to go from announcement to release within a very small 6 month window, and no the Switch 1 isn't the same because the NX was announced 2 whole years before release.