Some mention the GBA and SNES having lower sales, suggesting that Switch 2 might follow that pattern. However, it's crucial to note that both those consoles had notably shorter lifespans than their predecessors. As for Switch 2, there's currently no indication that it will follow a similar trajectory… at least not yet.
The SNES, in hindsight, could potentially have continued selling, but it was the first Nintendo console with a planned obsolescence. The NES, on the other hand, was allowed to survive for 2-3 years into the SNES era, lasting up to a decade in certain markets effectively 12 years in total (de facto, it was 1983 to 1995, but officially it wasn’t discontinued until 2003). In comparison, the SNES had a lifespan of about 5 years almost everywhere outside of Japan (where I believe it was around 7 years). If you take any 5 years of the NES, the SNES outperforms it.
The reality is that there isn't enough information to predict Switch 2's performance with any reasonable accuracy. Unlike Sony, where the next console often follows a similar pattern to the previous one, or Xbox, where they copy Sony’s hardware and strategies but not necessarily their success (except for Xbox 360). Nintendo takes a unique approach with each generation. Generations vary in length, hardware differs in form, and sales can vary drastically. Some generations (like Cube and U) lack a standout killer app, while others (like GB, DS, Wii, and Switch) boast multiple, which has proven a crucial role in driving console sales.
In short, we need more information (killer apps, generation length, form factors, supply, pricing, etc…) to make an informed prediction. If we're going by gut feelings… I feel 379 million! That's probably way off. :D
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
