It's hard to say. But if I were to give a guess I'll say it's unlikely to outsell the Switch 1. It's super difficult to reach 150M in sales for any console.
I have a feeling some Switch owners won't feel the need to upgrade if it's just a regular Switch 2 with better graphics being one of the only major improvements of the system. The Switch 1 pretty much still functions the same way as a Switch 2 would being a hybrid console and I could see some current owners being content with just sticking to Switch 1.
Regardless, if it's just a standard Switch successor it'll likely be another 100+ Million Unit success, just not outselling the Switch 1 which isn't at all a bad thing either.
I won't completely rule out the Switch 2 maybe outselling the Switch 1. I feel like the hype around the Switch 2 at launch this time around will be alot stronger that the Switch 1's hype mainly cause Nintendo is bigger than ever now after the Switch 1 lifespan compared to the 2017 launch of the Switch where Nintendo was just coming off their worst most unpopular era. So that extra launch hype surrounding a new Switch console may induce newcomers to hop on and try a Switch 2.
Also, if Switch 2 ends up having a longer life that'll certainly raise the possibility especially since I believe the Switch 1 easily has the potential of selling 165M+ if the successor isn't releasing in 2024.
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