Will the Switch's successor outsell the original Switch?

[Wman1996]

super_etecoon said:

I can easily see Nintendo repeating the same decline with the Switch 2 as they did from the NES to SNES. At 150 million Switch's (give or take) that would put the Switch 2 around 115-120 million, which is still a staggering number. The Switch 2 will most likely be Nintendo's primary handheld once again and I don't see the floor of a Nintendo handheld being less than 80 million units at this point. It really will come down to software and how much of an upgrade the Switch successor is. If folks who jumped in this gen are fine and dandy with their OG Switch and it keeps getting material support from publishers and developers, the Switch 2 could have a harder road ahead of it. But considering the Switch is from 2017, I just don't see that happening. Nintendo couldn't have scripted a better opportunity for success after the Switch, at least in terms of timing and pacing. The onus is on them, of course, to release a compelling product and compelling software.

Yeah. An NES to SNES drop percentage (around 21%) or even a GB/GBC to GBA drop (around 31%) are both likely scenarios. I don't think we're going to see a DS to 3DS drop of around 49%, nor a horrendous drop like Wii to Wii U (over 86%). 

If Nintendo went back to two separate platforms a generation, we could easily get another Wii U-like failure. But as long as they stick with hybrids or handhelds, I think they're a long way away from selling that poorly again.