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curl-6 on 23 October 2023
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XtremeBG said:

So .. the Switch finally came to under 200k weekly ..
It hadn't had a week with under 200k since august 2019.


The beginning of the end is obviously here. Now is more clear than ever. To go from peak 300-400k weeks to 180k weeks.. which means (if history is any indication) that there is not much left in the tank. Historically when system goes down close to half what it did on peak years, then the decline is coming pretty fast.
What I am trying to say here is that weeks with around 100k weekly aren't too far off. Switch successor is too not far off, since the decline may even boost the launch sooner than earlier predictions like 2025 spring or even fall 2024.


Historically consoles who've sold 200k+ or even 300k+ weekly, once they get to under 200k, they have about a year of selling between 120/130k and 200k and after that they fall even faster (like PS4, DS, Wii) the only exclusion here is maybe PS2 .. After all US and Europe are considerably down for the system with only Japan doing decent for now .. once Japan starts to fall it's done..


Of course holidays are coming, and Switch will rise back to 200k+ weekly very soon, and more in the last weeks of the year.
However the baseline of Switch's week sales for the next year will be anywhere between 120/130k and 200k. And depends on when the successor will launch and how it will be marketed, it may go to the lower numbers very fast.

And .. now someone will say " of course it's declining it's 7 years old, bla bla. That's not the point. I am saying here that many people wanted and expected and highballing the system to sell over 160M+ but from the looks of things especially with the recent data we are getting the things are going in this direction.

I haven't seen many people expecting over 160 million.

The consensus on Switch's lifetime sales has always been a moving target, from many predicting a Wii U like failure at launch and their goal of 100 million being laughed at as impossible, to now when most predictions seem to come in between 140 and 160 million. It's been notoriously hard to predict as it has not behaved like a normal system.

At any rate, I doubt current sales will alter Nintendo's plans; the successor's launch timing has likely been set in stone for some time now, and about the only thing likely to change that is if their slate of software isn't ready in time. 

Every system comes to the end of its natural life eventually; Switch is getting there, but these sales aren't a collapse or anything.