Are physical games eventually going to die?

[Shadow1980]

Obviously we're not talking about geological/cosmological time scales here, but at some time within the lives of grown people around today. In other words, some time within the next 50 years or so.

To that, I'd say "Hopefully not." There is still a significant market for physical media, including a decent-sized contingent that would refuse to accept an all-digital future. No other segment of the entertainment industry has forced people to switch to digital, and they still give people physical options. You can still buy CDs & vinyl records even now well over two decades after the first mp3 player and the creation of Napster and iTunes (the market for physical albums has bottomed out and even experienced a big increase in sales in 2021). You can still buy movies and TV shows on Blu-ray or even DVD, with some titles still becoming million-sellers (Spider-Man: No Way Home and Top Gun Maverick sold about 2M copies each in just the U.S. last year). Print books still dominate e-books, showing that, at least when it comes to literature, most people still prefer a physical copy. According to digital evangelists from around 10-15 years ago, all the printing presses and all the disc factories should have been closed down for years already.

However, consoles are closed platforms. While anybody can make device to play CDs, records, or Blu-rays, nobody besides the console makers can make their respective platforms as long as the patents are in force. If they so chose, they could theoretically force the issue and decide that their next systems won't accept physical media of any kind. The video game industry could very well be the first and only one to tell people "buy digital or do without." And while it's not 100% confirmed, there's a good chance that MS is going to be the first one to pull the trigger.

I certainly hope the console makers don't abandon physical media, because I'd stop supporting them. But seeing as they have total control of their platforms they're in a better position to do so than other sectors of the entertainment industry, and they're an industry that's done a lot of scummy things to its customers over the years, so I wouldn't put it past them to take the option of buying physical copies away from people. Options are good and disc drives are cheap, so hopefully they don't give people like me the middle finger.