Nintendo Direct set for September 14 at 7:00 a.m. PT / 10:00 a.m. ET

[PAOerfulone]

zorg1000 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

The main problem with this reasoning is that first party releases have noticeably dropped the year before the successor released on EVERY PREVIOUS NINTENDO SYSTEM.  You're basically saying, "I believe what I want to believe, and I don't care what the reliable evidence says."

I'll start predicting a Switch 2 when I start seeing a drop in first party production.  This year has a new Zelda and a new Mario, and we're about to get a 40-minute Nintendo Direct.  All of this content is a sign that a successor is not coming soon.  On top of that Nintendo just posted their best first quarter in the entire history of ever.  It would be moronic business to replace the Switch right now.  All signs point to a Switch 2 coming later rather than sooner.

You sure about that?

US release dates Nintendo published games (other regions will vary)

2004 (year DS released)

February 9-Metroid: Zero Mission

March 22-Pokemon Colosseum

April 5-WarioWare Inc.: Mega Party Game$

May 10-Custom Robo

May 24-Mario vs Donkey Kong

June 7-Zelda: Four Swords Adventures

June 22-Mario Golf: Advance Tour

August 3-Pikmin 2

September 7-Pokémon FireRed/LeafGreen

September 20-F Zero: GP Legend

September 27-Donkey Konga

October 4-Mario Pinball Land

October 11-Paper Mario: Thousand Year Door

October 18-Kirby and the Amazing Mirror

November 8-Mario Power Tennis

November 15-Metroid Prime 2

November 15-Donkey Kong Country 2

November 20-Super Mario 64 DS

December 6-Mario Party 6

2006 (year Wii released)

January 9-Electroplankton

February 6-Drill Dozer

February 8-Chibi Robo

February 27-Super Princess Peach

March 6-Pokémon Trozei!

March 20-Metroid Prime Hunters

March 20-Tetris DS

April 16-Brain Age

May 15-New Super Mario Bros.

June 5-Big Brain Academy

June 5-Magnetica

August 28-Star Fox Command

September 11-Mario Hoops: 3 on 3

September 18-Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Red/Blue Rescue Team

September 25-Mario vs Donkey Kong 2: March of the Minis

October 9-Clubhouse Games

October 23-Magical Starsign

October 30-Pokémon Ranger

November 6-Elite Beat Agents

November 13-Yoshi’s Island DS

November 19-Wii Sports

November 19-Zelda: Twilight Princess

November 18-Excite Truck

December 4-Kirby Squeak Squad

April 2010-March 2011 (fiscal year 3DS released)

May 3-Picross 3D

May 23-Super Mario Galaxy 2

June 15-100 Classic Book Collection

June 27-Sin & Punishment: Star Successor

August 31-Metroid: Other M

October 3-Wii Party

October 4-Pokémon Ranger: Guardian Signs

October 17-Kirby’s Epic Yarn

October 25-Art Academy

November 1-PokePark Wii: Pikachu’s Adventure

November 7-FlingSmash

November 14-Mario vs Donkey Kong: Mini Land Mayhem

November 21-Donkey Kong Country Returns

November 29-Golden Sun: Dark Dawn

December 12-Super Mario All-Stars 25th Anniversary

February 11-Mario Sports Mix

March 6-Pokémon Black/White

March 27-Nintendogs+Cats

March 27-Pilotwings Resort

March 27-Steel Diver

2012 (year Wii U released)

February 13-Rhythm Heaven Fever

February 27-PokePark 2: Wonders Beyond

March 11-Mario Party 9

March 23-Kid Icarus: Uprising

April 6-Xenoblade Chronicles

May 20-Mario Tennis Open

June 18-Pokémon Conquest

August 19-New Super Mario Bros. 2

September 16-Kirby Dream Collection

October 1-Art Academy: Lessons for Everyone

October 7-Pokémon Black/White 2

October 22-Style Savvy: Trendsetters

November 11-Paper Mario: Sticker Star

November 18-New Super Mario Bros. U

November 18-Nintendo Land

April 2016-March 2017 (fiscal year Switch released)

April 21-Star Fox Zero

April 28-Mini Mario & Friends: Amiibo Challenge

April 29-Pokémon Rumble World

June 10-Kirby: Planet Robobot

June 15-Rhythm Heaven Megamix

June 24-Tokyo Mirage Sessions

August 19-Style Savvy: Fashion Forward

August 19-Metroid Prime: Federation Force

September 1-Picross 3D Round 2

October 7-Paper Mario: Color Splash

November 4-Mario Party: Star Rush

November 18-Pokémon Sun/Moon

December 2-Super Mario Maker 3DS

February 3-Poochy & Yoshi’s Woolly World

March 3-Zelda: Breath of the Wild

March 3-1-2-Switch

March 24-Mario Sports Superstars

Where is this supposed drop in output before a new device releases?

To add to your point, all of those releases were split up amongst Nintendo's main console and handheld at the time. (Pre-DS: GBA and GCN. Pre-Wii: DS, GCN, and GBA. Pre-3DS: DS and Wii. Pre-Wii U: 3DS, Wii, and DS. Pre-NS: 3DS and Wii U.)

This time around, the Switch is getting it ALL. Which means what would've been a subpar or mediocre pre-successor launch lineups for 2-3 different systems back then will now be a solid or pretty good pre-successor launch lineup for 1 system here.