The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[RolStoppable]

Slownenberg said:

My point is 3DS and Switch had completely different price ranges, therefore they had different markets, and they also had entirely different libraries. Switch was not a successor to the 3DS. This allowed 3DS to keep selling. Switch won't have that luxury when next gen comes out, unless it gets a huge price cut. Nobody is buying a $300 or $350 Switch if backwards compatible Switch 2 costs $350 or a little bit more. So yeah, of course it is market demand, but Switch market demand will dry up to essentially zero as soon as next gen starts unless they have big price cuts on it. Switch didn't do a whole lot to lessen market demand for 3DS because 3DS and Switch are entirely different things - entirely different features, library, and prices.

And I am telling you that your point is bad. Switch succeeded both the Wii U and the 3DS, this shouldn't even be debatable anymore in the year 2023. The rest is just assumptions that Switch won't have more attractive SKUs than right now in combination with a lowballed Switch 2 price. It also ignores that physical copies are lower priced than digital ones which will only hold more true as time goes on. When retailers are selling Switch first party games for around $40 when Switch 2 is out while Switch 2 games cost $60-70, then it's not just a small disparity in hardware prices that speaks for Switch having a continued shelf life.

You also overestimate backwards compatibility which Switch 2 will most likely have. The 3DS was backwards compatible at $250 while the DSi and DSi XL were sold at $150 and $170, respectively, but shit hit the fan for Nintendo because the market was still buying the DS at the same rate as the 3DS, hence the significant price cut for the 3DS several months after its launch. Market demand for Switch dropping to essentially zero is even unrealistic under your outlined conditions.