I think they kept the 3DS around because it was much cheaper than the Switch ($300 vs $129-$149) so it could serve the bottom end of the market. There was no Switch Lite to do that yet. Also remember this is in 2015/16 when they had to make decisions on 3DS-Switch relationship, they didn't know at the time that the Switch was guaranteed to be a huge hit, they had to hedge their bets a bit more and not just wipe the 3DS out entirely. Now they should be much more confident in the Switch concept.
Also 3DS games had no compatibility with the Switch, that should be different for Switch 2.
The regular size Switch models are still quite expensive ($300-$350) and so it depends I think on whether Nintendo wants to cut the price on those models or simply push those people to buy a Switch 2 instead for (probably) $400. I suspect that is what they will want. If you're willing to pay $350 for a Switch OLED today, you should just pay the extra $50 to get a Switch 2, which I think isn't unsound logic. Switch Lite will probably be kept around as a cheap option for really young children and budget strapped parents.
Switch 2 should be backwards compatible so that issue between 3DS and Switch isn't really the same with Switch 2 and Switch 1. In Nintendo's POV, Switch 2 is a Switch 1 too, any sale of Switch 2 over a Switch 1 is a win for Nintendo because they get that consumer locked in not only to the current Switch ecosystem but their software ecosystem for the next 7-8 years.
My guess would be the breakdown will be like this
$399.99 - Switch 2 is going to be the model Nintendo pushes the people buying the OLED/OG Switch models to buy + early adopters. They're going to want both of those crowds to drive rapid install base.
$299.99 - 1 model of OG Switch (one of OLED or non-OLED will be phased out I think, not sure which one) but available in limited shipments, like PS4. This is basically like Nintendo saying "OK fine, we'd rather you buy a Switch 2, but if you just are going to kick and scream about it, we'll keep a limited supply of OG Switch available). So this will be available as an option I think but in restricted quantities. They're going to try and channel this "I'm willing to spend $300-$350 on the Switch" crowd straight towards a Switch 2 instead.
$199.99 Switch Lite - Kept around for very young children and budget conscious parents. Basically this model will function like the 3DS did for a few years until a Switch 2 Lite is possible (3nm die shrink I would think), production will depend on demand.
Thinking about it I could see the Switch OLED phased out. The OLED part is more expensive, so they could opt to phase that one out and make a fatter profit margin on the regular Switch and keep it at $299.99. Nintendo did this with the 3DS too, they phased out the New 3DS XL (the best model 3DS) in favor of the New 2DS XL, pretty much because the profit margin was likely better. PS4 Pro is the same thing, you can't really buy a new one, Sony's message on that is basically "look if this is what you want, buy a PS5".
Last edited by Soundwave - on 13 August 2023
