The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[PAOerfulone]

Based on Nintendo's own 15M forecast for this FY. I had the Switch's quarter sales somewhere along these lines: 3.00M, 3.00M, 6.00M, 3.00M.
Well, it's already ahead by 0.91M, so it's off too a great start. If Super Mario Bros Wonder lives up to expectations, it should have no problems matching or exceeding the 6M figure I have predicted for this holiday season and I'd even expect that game's momentum to carry it into a good chunk of Q4 so that it's just enough combined w/ whatever they have planned for that quarter to meet or exceed THAT 3M number as well. My only concern is THIS quarter - As great as Pikmin 4 is doing software sales wise, is that really enough to maintain the Switch's momentum coming off of Tears of the Kingdom and carry it over to Wonder? We shall see in early November.

As far as Switch 2 is concerned, I think it's a forgone conclusion that it's coming next year. My guess would be a September/October 2024 launch. With the next 3D Mario game as a launch title or during the holiday season 1-2 months later assuming they don't have another highly anticipated title slated as a cross-gen launch title just like how Breath of the Wild was for the Wii U/Switch transition... COUGHPrime4COUGH.
And just as Rol said, I too expect a pretty beefy launch price - $400, maybe even $450. With software selling for $70 across the board. And that's not even considering how much the new controllers or joycons may cost. The price of the new accessories, games, and the system itself will make it so that it would need a very strong launch lineup in order to get it off the ground running. Even then, I would imagine that the vast majority of early adopters will be the avid, diehard Nintendo fans and dedicated gamers like us who will be onboard from the get go and are just waiting for the right games/lineup or perhaps that ONE killer app to tip us over the edge.

However, the casual fans and parents will probably hold off on making such a steep investment until either cheaper models come along, and/or inflation finally slows down and wages catch up so that investment won't be so steep anymore. Until then, they'll be perfectly content on getting the much cheaper Switch 1 w/ a far more robust library for their kids. ESPECIALLY w/ the knowledge that all those Switch 1 games will all be playable on Switch 2 when they finally do make that jump (Yes, I fully expect Switch 2 to be backwards compatible.)

While that's going on, Switch 1 should see a slow, steady, and gradual decline. One closer to the 3DS than the DS which will allow for better legs that just might carry it to that mythical 160M+ finish line.

Assuming the rest of my FY forecast remains the same, the remainder of Switch's life cycle could go something like this:

FY 2024: 16 million (141.62M)
FY 2025: 10 million (151.62M)
FY 2026: 5 million (156.62M)
FY 2027: 2.5 million (159.12M)
FY 2028+: 0.88 million+ (160 million+)

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 08 August 2023