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Late 2024. That makes by far the most sense business wise unless they really need an extra few months to get software ready. By then Switch will have cooled off a lot but will still have some life left in it making it the ideal period to begin building up the install base of the successor while still releasing some cross-gen games for 1-2 years to take advantage of the install base of the Switch 1 as it transitions over to the new one.