I think not only are the next Mario Kart + 3D Mario I think "reserved" for Switch 2, I think they probably are at a very advanced state of development where like a lot of the core game is finished and they could bring it to release is a rather rapid fashion (within 6-8 months of being asked) to accommodate various different release windows. I wouldn't say they're "sitting" on finished games, but I think they have the games at a late stage of development and are just polishing away at this point. Like Mario Kart they might have all the base tracks done already and have already moved on to working on future DLC content and polish.
Even for a dev kit, you really don't even need Switch 2 hardware, you could make due with like a laptop Ampere based 30-series chip and underclock it roughly along the lines of what Nvidia was aiming for to start development (something approximating 1 TFLOP-2 TFLOP for example) if you know already that the Switch successor was going to be an Ampere based chip. You could start development like that.
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