With ToTK and Mario Wonder ... Nintendo's late gen obligations to the Switch are largely complete. Those two games should carry the Switch for several years going forward. You really don't have a leg to stand on if you're going to say "they didn't support the system enough!", they've given it their all more or less at this point.
And for Nintendo it worked out well because they were able to "save" the Switch's original 2D Mario to line up with the same holiday season as the Mario movie's release without having an adverse affect on the system, the other Mario platformers did more than just fine filling the Mario itch for several years, and now they have a late-gen title that can put the Switch on cruise control and they can relax about that.
The next 3D Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros., Splatoon, Xenoblade, mainline Luigi's Mansion really are all probably reserved for Switch 2, you can't even really do a 3D Mario for 2024 for Switch because it would create a huge problem for the Switch 2 where it can't then get a 3D Mario until like when? 2026? 2027 more realistically? With no new Zelda early in the product cycle for Switch 2, that's just putting that system at such a disadvantage that it's not worth even contemplating. You can't rob Peter just to pay Paul.
I think they'll maybe do some games cross-gen, like maybe another Pokemon, maybe a Donkey Kong game, a Kirby game, Metroid Prime 4 I could see being cross-gen ... so there's that at least.
But I think from 2024 onwards all major software development is either Switch 2-only or cross-gen. Smaller scale things like a F-Zero GX Remaster, Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon, Peach Platformer, Paper Mario: TTYD Remake maybe are Switch-only (though Switch 2 should be able to play them anyway), but I think after 2023, the Switch only projects that are major releases are going to start to thin out. As is too I suspect all the Switch games that have been coming out recently or are planned already may be 4K ready anyway, as in they'll run at 4K on Switch 2 with no fuss, all that'll be needed is a firmware update.
