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curl-6 said:

Yeah it seems like past Nintendo systems have trained people to expect a long drought at the tail end of the lifecycle, so when people see games still coming to Switch the assumption is that it has years left before replacement.

But Nintendo are in a very different place now. They're restructured the company around providing a consistent software stream. Mario Wonder this year doesn't rule out Switch 2 next year any more than Yoshi's Island on SNES in 1995 ruled out the N64 in 1996, The Last of Us on PS3 in 2013 ruled out PS4 the same year, or Pokemon Black and White on DS in 2010 ruled out 3DS in 2011.

We're used to Nintendo dropping major support like a year before a system is replaced, but it doesn't need to be that way now.

Exactly, we also had Pokemon Sun & Moon release for 3DS in 2016 just 3 months before the Switch released. Skyrward Sword also released relatively close to the release of the Wii U and the Wii U was already announced by the time it came out, I don't think the game library will be a good indication of when Switch 2 will end, we've seen numerous times where A-tier games release towards the tail end of a lifecycle, and it will especially be the case with the Switch since it's the most successful platform of all time so Nintendo won't drop it as soon as Switch 2 releases.