If Nintendo waits a long time for a Switch successor, what do you think will happen?

[javi741]

I've always been one of the few on this site that believes that Nintendo will not release a successor anytime soon. I'm talking 2025 or potentially beyond.

The reason why I believe this is because Nintendo simply has very little reason to release a successor. A good amount of people here believe that the Switch successor should release sooner rather than later because hardware sales are dropping and sales are far past their peak, and when that happens we typically see Nintendo release a successor to prevent sales from slowing down.

However, many people don't seem to realize why companies release their successors' in the first place. Companies don't realease successors not because it's more profitable for them, it's too keep up with their competitors so their games don't look outdated or inferior to their other platforms which could slow down brand engagement and potentially software sales if their games don't keep up with the current trends.

I'm sure if companies had the option, they'd rather just keep supporting a piece of hardware indefinetely and just make money off the software sales since they wouldn't need to spend so much time,money, and resources to develop a successor that isn't guaranteed to be as successful. Hardware sales mean very little when it comes to a companies profitability. However, for most of gaming history, the console makers can't cause they don't want to give competitors a headstart in the generation and allow the competitors look superior when it comes to gameplay and performance which may steer away engangement away from your platform.

For example, I'm sure Sony would've been content with just supporting the PS4 indefinitely without releasing a PS5 since the PS4 was their most profitable console just off of software sales and they wouldn't need to spend millions on developing a PS5. But Sony didnt want to allow Microsoft get ahead in the console space with a more impressive system and games and steal away PS's marketshare so they were forced to release a PS5 to keep up. A big reason why the Genesis was able to steal some marketshare from Nintendo was cause for 2 years they had a superior platform with better looking games compared to the NES. These competitors release successors to keep up, not neccesarily because it's more profitable.

However, Nintendo doesn't have a need to release a successor anytime soon because they essentially have no competitors against them right now that they need to keep up with. The PS5 and Xbox SX clearly haven't slowed down the Switch at all since they can't offer portability or Nintendo experiences, and there's no competitor in the handheld space. Nintendo could keep supporting the Switch and stay profitable primarily through software sales and considering the fact that this is easily Nintendo's most profitable console with the highest attach rate for Nintendo games in history, it definetely would be tough to convince them to move away from the Switch since it's been so profitable for them and it's far from a guarantee the next system will be.

Yea hardware sales are dropping for the Switch but Nintendo makes most of their profit on software, so smaller hardware sales won't be a major detriment to their business as long as the software sales are there. Nintendo has no competitors to keep up with for them to release a successor anytime soon. They'd likely for now rather take advantage of the Switch's large install base and remain profitable off the software sales instead of risking releasing a new platform that's far from guaranteed to be as successful.This is what Nintendo did with the 1989 Gameboy, although it was super underpowered even going into the late-90s. Nintendo still didn't release a successor cause they had a huge monopoly on the handheld market and would've rather just stick to their current hardware.

Some people may object to this stating that consoles like the Wii & DS were extremely profitable like the Switch but their successors still release relatively early.

While this is true, the Switch is in a totally different position then successful consoles like the DS & Wii were towards the end of their life. One of the big reasons why Nintendo rushed the Wii & DS successors despite the success of the DS & Wii was because they were worried about the competition eating up their marketshare. For the Wii, Microsoft & Sony already released their answers to the Wii's motion controls with the PS Move & Kinect which is part of the reason why Wii sales were falling quickly after 2010 since their wasn't really that new distinguishing factor with the Wii anymore outside of Nintendo games, Nintendo rushed to move on since they knew that motion controls were getting old quick with their competitors using their idea. For the DS, Nintendo rushed out the 3DS to not let Sony get a headstart with the PS Vita and to keep up with the fast growing mobile market that was projected to replace dedicated handhelds at one point.
Even with the GBA despite how successful it was doing, they cut it's life short as the primary handheld to having a 3 year lifespan just cause Nintendo was so worried about Sony stealing away their marketshare in the handheld space with the PSP, which shows how seriously Nintendo reacts to their competition when they percieve them as a threat.

The Switch isn't in that position.
Nintendo will have to be even more cautious with releasing the Switch successor because the Switch is now their only platform they have, they don't have another succesful platform that will act as a safety net for Nintendo in-case the Switch 2 fails. Just like how the 3DS acted like Nintendo's saftety net while the Wii U was failing. Nintendo doesn't have that option this generation which makes me believe they are less willing to rush a successor when their current platform is more than successful.

This is why Im expecting the Switch to release 2025 or later, and like I said earlier it wouldn't be a bad thing for them. As long as they keep releasing software they'll stay more than profitable since software sales is the most important thing when it comes to Nintendo's profit, not software.

I still do expect eventually Nintendo will release more iterations of the Switch, the 3DS was a far less successful console and still had 6 iterations, it'll be follish if Nintendo doesn't follow that path and release more iterations to maintain interest. Some ideas I have for Switch iterations in the future include a Switch Oled Lite, a Switch-only TV that you could get for only 150$ to be able to play Switch games on the TV for cheap, I believe the TV portion of the Switch is overall more appealing than the portable only version since some of Nintendo's bestselling games are local multiplayer type games better suited for the TV.

I also think Nintendo should strongly consider digital only Switch's with maybe more storage but priced at a discount like the OG digital Switch could be 250$ or 200$ instead of 300$ and the digital Oled could be 300$ and Nintendo would make up decrease in hardware profit through the increased profitability of digital only purchases. Nearly 50% of Switch game purchases are now digital so making digital only Switch consoles could be a smart way to give the Switch a steep discount while maintaining a similiar level of profitability.

In terms of games, since I don't see the Switch releasing any early than 2025 I believe the Switch will get good heavy hitters and potentially even after the Switch 2 launches. Like I said, Nintendo will have to be far more cautious releasing the successor cause they only have one platform now, they don't have a safety net product like the 3DS was for the Wii U to keep them afloat, so it's likely the Switch 1 will be heavily supported even after Switch 2 releases.

In terms of the heavy hitters, Prime 4 is of course bound to release. A 2D Mario been heavily rumored by this one leaker over the past year and I definetely wouldn't rule that out since 2D Mario always been a big seller and it's been 11 years since the last original one. I also wouldn't rule out one more last 3D Mario for the Switch to end the generation, especially since it's about to be 6 years since Odyssey, tied for the biggest 3D Mario drought. I'm certain that another major Pokemon game will release on Switch to maintain interest, and a few other smaller games to supplement the bigger games.

I think Nintendo will be fine prolonging the Switch even beyond 2025.