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Nintendo could theoretically announce/debut Switch 2 in say first week of March 2024 (thus limiting the impact on Switch 1 sales for the fiscal year) and launch by say late June 2024 and it would have the same marketing cycle length as the original Switch did.

I would say if they are launching in 2024, that would probably be the smarter course of action, all this "well they have to announce in 2023" to me doesn't make a whole lot of sense, why kill any more Switch 1 sales going into a holiday season for now great reason. Switch 1's marketing cycle really was only actually a little over 4 months (late October-March 4th).