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Soundwave on 04 May 2023
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Wyrdness said:
Soundwave said:

You could say the same for the PS4 before the PS5 was announced ... it was selling just fine too. 

I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding by a lot of people on how hardware design and delivery works too. 

Nintendo doesn't just sit around waiting for sales to decline to a certain point and then pick up the phone and call Nvidia and say "OK now, we need a new system, have it delivered to us in 12 months please". 

Like that's an impossible way for it to work. Beyond design time issues, beyond the obvious fact that it takes 2 1/2-3 years to have software ready, there's manufacturing issues too, you don't just show up to TSMC on a Sunday and say "well we decided now to have a new system, can you whip us up something" as if you're ordering a pizza at your uncle's corner store or fresh baked cookies from the supermarket. 

Supply lines are tight, these deals have to be set in place years in advance, not even "well 12 months in advance should be good enough". The decision on when to launch Switch successor likely was made 2-3 years ago already and deals are set in place. It can be changed a little bit but not in the way I think people here imagine. 

Also I don't think Nintendo wants to be sitting on a platform for years that is progressively selling less and less every year. They don't have two hardware lines anymore, you don't want to be in a decline phase of your business for multiple years if you don't really have to be. 

PS4 is not comparable to Switch for a start as pointed out by Javi Sony has to directly react to MS regardless of position in the market Nintendo right now doesn't need to really react to anyone secondly PS4 operates only in one market while Switch operates in two one of which it has a near monopoly in which Nintendo can leverage.

No shit Nintendo doesn't sit around they were already doing R&D when Switch launched as they were when WiiU launched, they already have concepts and prototypes of their next platforms to react to their own situation like they did with the WiiU and here's the twist they keep coming up with new ones as time goes on until the time comes when they have to make a move and pick out the most suitable option of their R&D results to become their new platform going forward at the time.

I'm talking about the chip R&D which is done by Nvidia, I don't think Nvidia really cares what Nintendo does or doesn't do with controllers or things like that, the chip is the issue, because

1.) Once the chip is complete likely you have to pay some amount for it (unless Nvidia became charity without telling anyone) for the years of work Nvidia did to develop the chip (which is likely the Tegra 239, we already know what the chip is from leaks from Nvidia). Beyond that, Nintendo likely has to pay Nvidia a certain amount on a yearly basis (royalty fees) too, it's likely not a one sum lump payment. 

2.) Even if you have the chip, I don't think people understand that's only a fraction of the whole issue. Even if you have the competed system ... yeah OK ... and who's going to manufacture it? This is kind of a big deal, you can't just show up to TSMC's front door and say "hey we got this 5nm new Nvidia chip, can you whip us up some?". Production lines for high end chip are limited with many companies wanting access for a range of devices (smartphones, tablets, laptops, desktop GPUs, etc. etc. etc. etc.). Those deals have to likely be booked years in advance too and if you just bail out on the deal you're likely subject to penalties because you've screwed TSMC or Samsung out of money they could have made had they booked that production for another vendor. 

This stuff is not as simple as "ho hum, we're just working away on our new hardware like a after school club and it'll be ready when ever we want" ... you have to have an idea years in advance when you're going to need said hardware and you have to have deals worked out that the hardware can even be manufactured in mass quantities (millions upon millions). Especially with modern hardware, yes even Nintendo's, this is a lot more complex when you're talking about hardware that is well beyond like a PS2/GameCube/Wii level. 

There's a lot that goes into hardware chipsets, especially modern level 3D hardware (anything beyond like a PS2/Wii level) and for Switch systems and its successor even doubly so, a Switch 2 chip is going to have to be a fairly modern (thus expensive and harder to secure) production node, probably 5nm because it has to have decent battery life in a portable state. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 04 May 2023