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Soundwave on 04 May 2023
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javi741 said:
Soundwave said:

Well a few things, software sales for the Switch are dropping too, it's not just hardware sales that are falling. 

The other thing I think that doesn't get talked about is that userbase isn't like some rock solid population that doesn't wane either. There may well be people who bought a Switch say 6 years ago who are kinda done with the system and moving on to spending more of their money on say that new PS5 they purchased or any number of other entertainment options. So even if you have say a "userbase of 120 million" ... it doesn't actually mean you effectively have that if you stretch a system's product cycle way past 6-7 years. You start to lose people at the top for example or maybe they will buy a Zelda event level game but take a pass on being active in buying software throughout the year. 

Nintendo has to pay for hardware, the hardware can't just be completed and then they can sit on it indefinitely and not pay Nvidia, I'm sure Nvidia expects to be paid. You'd also have to book your window with TSMC or Samsung or whoever to get supply lines, and if you just cancel those there is likely a penalty because you're fucking them over by telling you'd have product there and then pulling out. Production space is extremely valuable. 

I don't think it's as simple as you think it is. 

Beyond that, even for people who want to cling to 2025 or whatever ... OK, but game development now takes 2 1/2-3 years ... that means as of 2022 (which we're already well past) just to make a 2025 launch, Nintendo would have to start phasing down development of Switch 1 software to focus on Switch 2 software to have anything ready even for 2025. 

Now that ToTK has wrapped, really all of Nintendo's major studios should be working on Switch 2 content. Like today, now, I'm not talking about 1 year into the future. Really by this point they should be well into development for Switch 2 software like more than a year into development for things like the next Mario Kart. 

Software sales are only down 4% this fiscal year compared to last fiscal year, that's so miniscule to the point where it's not even worth bringing up to show that there's declining interest in the brand, the 4% drop could've easily been erased had Nintendo released one more solid game. A 4% drop in software sales shouldn't at all indicate people are losing interest in the brand.

There hasn't been any indication yet that people who purchased the Switch 6 years ago are starting to lose interest or move on from the Switch. If that were the case we'd see more than a 4% decline in software sales at this point.

The idea that people will get tired of the Switch just cause it's outdated is greatly exaggerated, TOTK looking similiar graphically to BOTW isn't stopping people from being massively hyped for the game. Many people actually believe TOTK will outsell BOTW in lifetime sales, it doesn't seem like people are losing interest in the Switch at all if that's the case. Nintendo this past quarter just released their fastest selling game in their history with Pokemon S&V. 

Many gamers are content with owning the same system for 10+ years at times and still paying their yearly sequels to COD games that haven't changed much graphically on the same platform. Yes eventually gamers will want a better graphical experience, but it's not the end of the world if the option isn't there as long as the games are there. We see Microsoft and Sony upgrade their systems to keep up with the competition, Nintendo doesn't have competition right now so they aren't as much of a rush to release their successor as quickly. Declining hardware sales won't hurt the core of their business which is software sales.

Nintendo is not immediately shift their studios straight to Switch 2 permanently, even if if were to be releasing in 2024(But I'm thinking 2025 or later). Nintendo will likely want to keep the Switch around for several more years as a safety net in case the Switch 2 doesn't do as well. So major studios will likely continue to work on the Switch and the Switch 2 for right now,

If Switch 2 doesn't do so well, the aging, old-ass Switch by that point is not going to do shit either, so I would probably submit that Switch 2 is a massive priority for Nintendo right now and for quite some time. If you're Nintendo's president that has to be your no.1 priority behind the scenes right now. 

If Switch 2 is a dud ... it's such a massive blow to Nintendo and will completely and forever throw into doubt their ability to ever follow up a success. 0/3 successfully following up Wii, DS, and Switch ... you might as well just throw your hands up and admit as a management group you cannot handle success. 

But this they should know full well ... they've known this since 2020, 2021 too, it's not breaking news. 

If Nintendo cannot do the Switch 2 right and/or needs like 9 years to get it out and MS doing MS things ... at what point do you just start to say Sony is the only competent management group in this business, because they seem to have very few problems like this, 5 Playstation models 4/5 have launched very well in reasonable amounts of time too. 

Mr. Furukawa better be eating, sleeping, shitting Switch 2 right now, they need a president that is on the ball right now. A lazy attitude of "we'll just fart out Switch 2 when Switch 1 has wound down most of its momentum" I don't think is a great attitude, you gotta be sharp and laser focused when launching hardware in this biz. You get sloppy and soft or laid back or arrogant and it will haunt you, when you really look at failed consoles those attributes seem to be common denominators in failure. 

The decisions made in the Switch 2's development process in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, the software that for it that's under development in 2021, 2022, 2023 will probably have consequences for Nintendo that extend into the next decade frankly (2030+). If they nail those decisions and time lines they'll be in good, if they start doing dumb things behind the scenes right now, it will very easily go the other way and be a headache for years and years. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 04 May 2023