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Zippy6 said:
mk7sx said:

Yes.

>12M global launch 3-days [2-2.5M JP / 9.5-10M ROTW]

19-20M launch quarter, maybe more.

I think this is a bit much. Pokemon S/V Nintendo's fastest selling game ever sold 10m in 3 days and 20.6m in it's launch quarter.

Maybe if Zelda was launching at the end of November like Pokemon S/V it could have a shot but launching in May I don't think these numbers are realistic.

Also BOTW sales are at about 3.41m in Japan on Switch after 6 years of sales. 2.5m in Japan would be 73% of BOTW's lifetime sales in 3 days...

While I agree that 12mil is not very realistic and myself expect a launch of at most 10mil for TotK, your last argument doesn't hold much water. Splatoon 3 and S/V sold just as high a percentage of their predecessor's LT sales or higher in Japan at their launches and quickly completely outsold their predecessors.

While TotK does not have multiplayer, which was likely a driving factor with these other two games, it's not impossible for it to sell 2M at launch in Japan.