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anonymunchy on 24 February 2023
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I really don't see them releasing a new console in 2024. This might be the impression you get when looking online, but that's a small bubble, sales indicate that it is still a console in high demand, just no longer in insanely high demand. Selling around 20 million in a year is extremely good, yet a lot of people (content creators) are saying that the switch is finished and needs to be replaced. The 3DS sold around 7 million for 4 years, just because a console is dropping in sales, doesn't mean it is going to keep dropping the same amount every year. Nintendo has reiterated every year that they want a longer lifecycle for the Switch. They entered unprecedented territory for themselves as they are looking to maintain sales instead of looking at new hardware.

Every new console is a console on it's own, the success or perception of a brand is of no importance. This should be clear by the sales progression of Nintendo's latest consoles.
GameCube - Wii - WiiU - Switch
The success or failure of the previous console had no impact on future consoles. I also don't think saturation plays such a big part at this point. Consoles stop selling because support drops and newer hardware is released. Keep pumping out games and sales will remain comfortably profitable for longer than we might assume.

If Nintendo were to release Super Mario Movie: The Game, Luigi's Ghost Town, Pokémon World, Donkey Kong 3D, F-Zero XXX, Dreamcast/GameCube/DS/2DS NSO apps, Xbox Live service, Animal Crossing: Planets, Mario Galaxy 3, New IP's (survival, roguelite, fps, crafting, battle royal), Xenoblade X-X2, New Nintendo Selects line, Mario Party DLC, Mario RPG 2, OOT/Majora remaster, 2D Mario, Astral Chain 2, Pokémon Legends 2, Mario Maker 3, Oracle/Ages remake, Switch Pro - decrease in price of previous models, Metroid Chozo Spin-off, Wario Land 5, Waluigi's Empire, Bowser's Adventure, on top of Tears of the Kingdom, Pikmin 4, Prime 2-3-4, Wind Waker HD, Twilight Princess HD, Professor Layton, Baten Kaitos I-II, Advance Wars Reboot, Mario Kart DLC and whatever else they are realistically releasing this year and next, would we honestly think sales would drop another 5 million both years, bringing it down to 10 million in 2024? I doubt that.
It's an unrealistic list of games, sure, bit only to point out that saturation only happens when the console loses support, new games bring in new people.

While I do hope and expect some form of backwards compatibility, I still also expect Nintendo to do something crazy again with the hardware, they are not in the habit of only increasing power. This would also leave room for one more Switch hardware iteration to be released after the summer of this year as a definitive way to play the games on a Switch console. Keeping in line with the 2 year refresh they have been doing so far. I'm hoping for some sort of wearable dock so I can lay down and play without straining my arms, but I won't hold my breath :P