| Fight-the-Streets said: I think Q1 2025. Switch will sell probably between 17-18 mil. this year. I expect a 2D Mario for the holidays season, so together with Zelda: TotK these numbers are achievable. Then 2024 they probably will sell 11-12 mil., in my opinion good enough numbers for a transitional year. Then come with Switch 2 in March 2025. I think, not releasing in the holidays season is an advantage as the Nintendo fans and gaming enthusiasts will buy it anyway at launch, so they will have less shortage problems for the holidays season for all the others who want to buy one. |
I agree that not launching during the holidays is definitely beneficial because then they get the big launch sales along with big holiday sales. I think the Switch proved this. BUT, launching Switch 2 in March 2025 would require them to announce it probably in Summer or early Fall 2024, and it would effectively kill off Switch sales for the 2024 holiday season as people will mostly be waiting for the new system.
So it would just make more sense to launch it holiday 2024 rather than suffer a very weak holiday season. The last thing Nintendo is going to want to have during any year is have a really weak holiday season.
If they want the double spike in sales the first year from launch as well as holiday they would probably launch Spring/Summer 2024. But I wouldn't be surprised if they give Switch software more time to sell (considering TotK is coming out this year and presumably 2D Mario will be coming as well and those will both be mega selling games with legs) and launch during the 2024 holidays rather than get that double sales spike.
If they launch holiday 2024, I just hope they have several million systems on shelves. It would suck to go through the Switch drought again where they were impossible to find for the first year or so.
