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I'm fairly confident Nintendo will keep to the model of launching in March. That not only worked out well for the Switch, but it also gave the 3D time to recover to have a good holiday season. It gives them time to build up to the holidays both in terms of the game library and in terms of production. With that in mind, March 2024 is the earliest they'd release the next system. If it was going to release at any point in 2023 there would have been an official announcement by now. If it doesn't release by March 2024 then I would expect it in March 2025. 7-8 years seems right to me given that the system has begun its decline and Nintendo isn't as concerned about milestones like beating the DS and PS2 as its fans are and is more concerned with its bottom line.