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I think late Spring 2024. Obviously it won't be this year that would be insanely stupid. And there's no reason to announce a successor this year and screw up Switch's holiday season so I think best bet is announce successor in early 2024 and release it a few months later just before Summer starts.

Summer 2024 Switch HW sales would probably be getting pretty slow without a successor so I'm not sure they'll wait until Holiday 2024 for it. Then again they'll be making gobs of money from Switch SW so they might not care that much about a slow HW 2nd and 3rd quarter in 2024.

I'd say somewhere between May 2024 and November 2024 is the sweet spot. 2025 feels too late. Though there are so many great games I still need to play through on Switch I wouldn't mind one bit if they held out until 2026 or something and just said HW will do what its gonna do but we're gonna make gobs of money on another big round of software in the meantime in '24/'25 selling games to 150m people or so.